Monday, February 04, 2008

Close Call

Here's how I see the Super Tuesday results breaking out:

Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, California, Delaware, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Oklahoma (which will provide her with her biggest margain of victory) and Tennessee.

Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois (his largest margain of victory), Kansas, Minnesota, Utah and North Dakota.

The final tally will 13 to 9 with Hillary claiming most of the big states. I think her win in California is all but sealed because of the number of early voters. The early votes (over 2,000,000) will most likely provide her with the margin of victory. Obama will get close in a number of states (AL, AR, NM, NJ, MO, CT, CA, DE), but close is not a win and the Clinton spin machine will be out in full force to make sure that the press reports the story that close only counts with grenades and horseshoes.

Of course if just two of the battleground states swing the other way, the Obama camp will be able to claim a victory because they would have been able to stand toe to toe with Clinton in a national primary. The most likely to switch to the Obama column are Delaware, New Jersey, Arizona, Connecticut and Missouri. While Minnesota and Colorado could end up as part of the Clinton tally. So while the final tally of states could be fairly even, I see it as more likely that Hillary will end up with even more than 13 that I have predicted.

No comments: