Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Don't Call It A Comeback

I know that Hillary Clinton has been all but dead and buried by the mainstream media outlets, but the Clinton's are at their most dangerous when they are counted out. The race is still extremely close and it certainly could turn around based on a major gaff by Obama or one of his minions (his wife's statement about this race being the first time that she is "really" proud to an American is a place to start). Post Super Tuesday, Hillary has lost 8 straight contests. Will Wisconsin and Hawaii make it 10? That remains to be seen. I do have a blueprint for her to get back in the race and it really wouldn't be very hard for her to get that ever elusive and basically non-existent "momentum" back on her side.

Here are the next 10 states to vote after today: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia. In theory, out of the next 10 states, Obama might be favored in two races; Mississippi and Wyoming. Clinton should have the edge going into every one of the remaining states. So her run may be 8 out 10 including the huge states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The press would have to admit that she has "momentum" on her side and that Obama would be in desperate need of wins to stem the tide. This scenario is not just a pipe dream, it's very possible. If Obama where to falter in Wisconsin and not pull off the upset in Texas, then he would be in for 7 weeks of consistent bad news. And while I have never seen a group political crush like the press are currently engaged in with Obama, even they would have to admit that things were not going his way.

The final primaries are in Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico. Hillary would be favored in at least Kentucky and Puerto Rico, so that she would end the primary season on a definite upswing. Would those victories be enough for her to retake the delegate lead? I haven't done the math and frankly, I was told there would be no math, so I'm not going to try. However the "momentum" would undoubtedly be hers. She could end the primary season on a 10-5 or better streak. What would the super delegates do then? I'm sure that Howard Dean and the rest of the Democratic leadership are going to bed praying that his scenario does not come true, but I put the chances at 50/50 this will actually happen. An Obama win in Wisconsin and then in Texas can derail this scenario. In fact if Hillary loses both Wisconsin and Texas, I think that on March 5, she will be fielding calls from every non-committed party leader asking her to step aside.

As we have seen, the pundits are very impressed by what is happening today. It's almost as if they an extreme case of myopic vision. In a race where Obama leads by 130 pledged delegates out of more than 2,000, I don't think it's time to throw in the towel quite yet. A surprise win by Hillary in Wisconsin tonight can start the ball rolling toward the democrats may yet come to call, "March Madness".

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