Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Press to Play

The political pundits and press continue to amaze me in just how short sighted they are. Last night Hillary Clinton won an easy victory in Ohio and a close victory in the popular vote in Texas (the caucus results are still being tabulated). When her victories were announced the talking heads on TV acted as if they were totally shocked. Their response was basically, "Oh my gosh, how could this possibly have happened. Obama had so much momentum, he spent so much money. He should have wrapped this up tonight". I wrote an article on Feb 13th where I predicted exactly what would happen last night and exactly the reasons why it would happen. Why on earth if I can predict what will happen three weeks before the actual event does the combined political "talent" on CNN, MSNBC and Fox act as if this is a total shock to them. Trust me when I say, I'm not that smart.

I suspect that the storyline of a "comeback" is more entertaining than a storyline about reality. They keep talking about the multiple Clinton "comebacks" as if it were magic. The truth is that there are certain states which just line up better for her (as there are states which line up better for Obama). I will now give you a complete rundown of the remaining primaries/caucuses and who will win each and by what margin:

Wyoming - Obama +10

Mississippi - Obama +10

Guam - Obama -10 (the only one that I'm really unsure about)

Pennsylvania - Clinton -10

Indiana - Clinton -10

North Carolina - Obama -10

West Virginia - Clinton +10

Kentucky - Clinton +10

Oregon - Obama -10

Montana - Obama +10

South Dakota - Obama +10

Puerto Rico - Clinton +10

So in the final analysis, in the final 12 contests we might end up with an even split 6-6 (depending upon Guam). The delegate count will pretty much stand at the same place it is today and as I have said before in politics, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS MOMENTUM. The pundits and press will continue to report on the contests as if they take place in a vacuum. Every result will be treated as a complete and utter surprise. What will the storyline be after next Tuesday when Obama has won both Wyoming and Mississippi? "Obama regains MOMENTUM after two easy victories. That will of course be a lie, but the press insists on perpetuating the myth so that after Hillary wins Pennsylvania they call that another comeback.

The race has taken a nasty turn that will ultimately lead to a John McCain victory in the fall. In fact for the first time I'm suggesting that Barack Obama get out of the race. He is now in a position of not being able to win against McCain in the fall because Hillary Clinton is going to do her best to tear him down until the convention. His best strategy would be to get out of the race, throw all of his support behind Hillary and regroup for another run in 2012. He can say that his decision was based on the fact the party needs to be unified and that he wanted to avoid a blood bath at the convention. He would be seen as a hero by the Democratic party, he would become the de facto nominee for the 2012 election and he would save himself from a defeat at the hands of John McCain. Most times, losers in the general election do not get a second chance to prove themselves (I believe that Richard Nixon was the last person to pull off that trick). By being magnanimous this time around, he preserves his opportunity to become President.

Anyway, that all I have to say about this Democratic race (I suggest reading Chuck Todd's First Read on the MSNBC site or catching him on TV for the best and most unbiased account of the race). I will now return to my sports blog (which I had basically abandoned during the last two month), so if you're looking for some rational analysis of the upcoming baseball season, you will find it there. Thanks to everyone who took time out to browse my nonsensical ramblings. Vaya con dios.

1 comment:

plf said...

The ongoing manipulative and misleading rhetoric continues to boggle - from the media and the pundits and also the nominees. Since when is still having a fewer number of delegates a win - is there a 'new math' I don't know about? It reads like Alice in Wonderland:
The White Queen: Can you do addition? What is one and one and one and one and one and one and one and one and one and one?
Alice: I don't know. I lost count.


Humpty Dumpty: When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less.
Alice: The question is, whether you can make words mean so many different things.
Humpty Dumpty: The question is: which is to be master - that's all.

Are you sure you won't reconsider continuing to write this blog? Where else am I going to get a realistic, honest perspective on this campaign? There is no indulgent rhetoric here - and I have come to rely on this balance.

Regardless of how this plays out in the coming weeks, Alice's words will undoubtedly ring true: Curiouser and curiouser.