Sunday, October 26, 2008

Crystal Ball

Just a couple of quick notes for today. First of all, you will be able to tell the outcome of the election very early on the 4th. The polls in Virginia close at 7pm and quick call for Obama will prove that the polling numbers are indeed correct (if you are an Obama fan, you can open the champagne at that point). If the race is seen as too close to call and remains that way for a number of hours, then the networks and the entire country will be in for a long night. Just a side note to pat myself on the back. On August 21st I wrote this, "Like the 2000 election when it was all about Florida, Florida, Florida, the 2008 election may be all about Virginia, Virginia, Virginia." The second note is that if the Republicans lose the election, you can mark my words that their next candidate for President will have a very familiar name. John Ellis Bush, better know as Jeb, will be the next Republican candidate for President. I'm sure that Sarah Palin, with her strong support among the Evangelical base of the party will try and make some push (that is if she doesn't get impeached in Alaska first), but smarter heads will prevail in the end. Jeb is destined to have the next shot at the Presidency, either in 2012 (if Obama wins) or 2016 (if McCain wins).

5 comments:

Bob Vanderet said...

Inteesting thought, but I have a strong feeling that W's legacy will be to destroy any chance Jeb had at the nomination. The Bush name has been severely tarnished and will be for a long, long time.

SJ said...

@Bob Vanderet,
I agree that the next election cycle may still be too soon for another Bush to make a run. But unfortunately with enough time and distance and the requisite rationalizing of W's policies and their effects... Well let's just say the American people have already shown that they will forgive and forget much. We have not seen the last of the Bushes.
@Michael Hew,
in a logical world I'd say Virginia was it too... But I feel like just don't know anything really substantive about this American voting public anymore, -I'm just going on what I used to know and assuming it will apply. Up until a month ago, McCain had all of the Southwest Hispanic communities (Read: second genration Mexican Americans) in tow. If the current polls are to be believed, he's lost them all to Obama in a massive shift.
There is also a matter of that dynamic that "dare not speak its name", or least won't be mentioned by anyone except David Gergen apparently.
-SJ

Michael Hew said...

Unlike John McCain, who is now trying to unsucessfully distance himself from the President, Jeb will be able to make the case that he really is not his brother. However, he will have the name recognition and a positive conservative record from his time as Governor of Florida to run on.

SJ said...

@Michael Hew,
"positive conservative record"... now that's comedy.
-SJ

Michael Hew said...

The right will eat it up.