Thursday, April 24, 2008

Say It Loud!

I think it's time to say what the mainstream press seems unwilling to say. The Democratic primary is over. There are still 9 more contests to go, but it is a mathematical certainty that Barack Obama will end up with a significant lead in the delegate count and will need less than 30% of the remaining super delegates to put him over the top. Hillary Clinton has no chance to overtake Obama. Watching the press try and drag this out to maintain their ratings would be amusing if it weren't so blatant a misstatement of the truth. Now I have no problem with Clinton continuing her campaign through June 3rd, but at that point even she would have to face the reality that she has lost.

I'm sure that her campaign already realizes that the race is over, but they are now in the "let's damage Obama as much as possible so that he can't possibly win against McCain and we get another chance in four years". The press is acting as if her win in Pennsylvania has somehow changed the dynamic of the race. It hasn't. The press is once again committing the mortal sin of analyzing one primary result in a vacuum. They celebrate her victory as if the entire race was played out on Tuesday. They act as if Obama is the one who is behind and doesn't have a chance to win. The group delusion will continue as long as the press can drag it out.

They accuse Obama of not being a tough candidate because he refuses to engage in the type of tactics that Clinton has. But for some reason they fail to realize the fine line that he is walking. If for instance he were to mock all of her supporters as she has his, the press would say that he was picking on her. If he were to engage in the type of politics that she has, they would say that he no longer has the moral higher ground that he has become just another politician.

None of this matters however because there is no question about who is going to end the primary season with the lead in delegates and votes. It's not important which states were won, unless you believe the bizarre and disproven theory that a win in the primary somehow translates to the general election. The super delegates will no doubt affirm the will of the voters. There has been a lot of talk from the Clinton campaign and from the press about how the super delegates will vote, but they are simply not going to pick the second place finisher as the Democratic Presidential candidate.

I understand that Clinton has to continue with the thought that she can somehow win, but there is no reason why the press has to play along. If, for instance, the situations were reversed, there is no way that he would be treated with the same seriousness that Clinton is. A win by a trailing Obama in say North Carolina would be explained away because of the demographics of the state. However since Clinton is in the trailing position, a 9 point win by her in Pennsylvania, a state in which she held a 20+ point lead a few weeks ago and has a demographic which is perfectly suited to her message, is hailed as a master stroke of political genius and a sign that Obama is somehow in real trouble.

I have no hope that I will be looked upon as the voice of reason here, but I just felt like it was time that someone stated the obvious. I am not trying to belittle Senator Clinton or her many supporters, but even they must realize that there is no way for her to win outside of pulling off something that would cause a full scale riot within the Democratic party. I have tried to stay pretty neutral in my coverage of the race, but I think we've passed the point of no return. Whether anyone likes it or not Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. So for better or for worse, the new creed of the Democratic party will be based on an old James Brown classic. So all you Democrats join in and say it once, say it loud, WE'RE BLACK AND WE'RE PROUD!


Ali A. Rizvi said...

I agree with this. Good post. Wrote something in a similar vein, if you have the time to check it out:

Sandy Jimenez said...

We've known and felt this for some time, so many thanks to you for putting it in a rational context as always, Mike. I hate arguing with Democrats, especially at this point it just seems crazy. The remnant of this nomination process is now hurting both of them long term, and damaging the eventual winner's (Obama) chances of beating McCain.
I've said before that I wholeheartedly doubt this country's maturity, that I doubt this country will vote for a black man or a woman; all of this nonsensical horse-racing from Primary to Primary is going to ensure a Republican victory in '08. Howard Dean needs to go twist some arms and bust some heads; -figuratively speaking of course.